Known factors that affect farmer decision-making
Though a great diversity of perspectives exists, most farmers are ultimately concerned with (1) maximizing the profit that they can make employing a particular livelihood strategy, (2) reducing risk/maximizing stability across years with suboptimal weather, and (3) the upfront costs of investing in an additional livelihood strategy. However, farmers make decisions based on their own needs and situations. The decision-making process is complicated because of the heterogeneous perspectives as well as differential access to resources.
Sowing wheat earlier
One of the central factors contributing to declines in yields is terminal heat stress during the grain-filling stage of wheat. One straightforward way to avoid yield losses is simply to plant wheat earlier. Early planting of wheat results in an earlier maturation. If planted sufficiently early, the wheat will mature before the temperatures get hot enough to significantly affect grain filling. In order to plant wheat early, however, farmers must ensure that the rice crop has been harvested on time and that the fields are prepared in time, which is not always as easy as it seems. For farmers who rely on canal irrigation, it can be particularly challenging. If they fail to harvest rice on time, it can lead to delays in the next season’s wheat crop, further subjecting wheat to heat stress. There are some adaptation strategies, however, that allow farmers to sow their wheat early. One option is to plant a medium-duration rice variety instead of longer-duration rice varieties. This method may work well for farmers reliant on canal irrigation since they are unable to plant until the monsoon rains arrive. Another option is to transplant the rice from the nursery earlier. In order for this to be accomplished, however, farmers must be able to irrigate their fields on time. This method is more appropriate for farmers with access to a well. A third option involves directly seeding rice and avoiding the nursery stage altogether. This allows for more timely planting of rice and involves less labor, but also requires tube well irrigation and can lead to more weeds being present in the field. A final option for sowing wheat earlier is to adopt a zero-tillage system to reduce the amount of time the land remains fallow between the monsoon and winter seasons. Zero tillage can be beneficial because it avoids disturbing the subsoil, which can improve soil health, reduces water use, and significantly reduces the labor required to prepare the fields for sowing.○○○ Zero tillage is not widely available in all regions across the IGP, however, and it can take multiple years for a zero-tillage system to produce yields higher than or similar to those with a conventional tillage system.
Planting more heat-tolerant wheat varieties
There are enhanced wheat varieties on the market that are less sensitive to heat stress and may be able to grow in a warmer climate without yield losses. Research groups are actively working to improve current wheat varieties and reduce the negative impacts of terminal heat stress. Many of these varieties are new, however, and still in experimental phases. It is unclear how effective they may be. Additionally, the enhanced varieties can be cost-prohibitive for some farmers.
Changing crop types
An alternative strategy for some farmers is to stop planting wheat altogether and switch to other crops. Farmers could plant maize, for example, in the hopes that it may be less affected by heat stress. Maize presents its own challenges, however, as it is frequently eaten by nilgai, a species of Asian antelope. Another alternative crop is sugarcane, which is a cash crop and generally worth a lot of money if the yield is successful. But sugarcane is also more sensitive to seasonal variation in weather. It requires a fairly stable climate and adequate rainfall, or the crop will not be successful. An additional factor that applies to any new crop is that farmers will need to learn how to grow it. There are tricks and nuances to each particular crop, and if farmers are not familiar with a new crop before attempting to grow it, the attempt could be more detrimental than helpful.
Investing in a different livelihood
On the extreme end of the spectrum, farmers may choose to abandon agriculture, whether partially or altogether, in favor of a different livelihood. In the face of such climatic uncertainties, some might choose to pursue employment or salaried professions. This would be a marked change in lifestyle for some farmers, many of whom have been involved in the agricultural sector their entire lives. Salaried professions would require learning new skills and navigating interpersonal relationships that are not as relevant to agriculture. Though beneficial in that they are less reliant on climate, entirely new livelihood strategies would represent a very different way of life that may be difficult for some farmers.